model { # X[,1] = 1 if bush vote >= 50% # X[,2] = 1 if Gore vote >= 50% # X[,3] = Bush Percentage in CD # X[,4] = Gore Percentage in CD # X[,5] = Black Percentage in CD # X[,6] = 1 if Southern State (11 states of Confederacy + OK + KY # X[,7] = Hispanic Percentage in CD # X[,8] = Median Family Income (in thousands) in CD # X[,9] = Percent Owner-Occupied Housing # X[,10] = DW-NOMINATE 1st Dimension # X[,11] = DW-NOMINATE 2nd Dimension # # PRIORS # for (k in 1 : 8) { beta[k] ~ dnorm(0,0.001)} # vague priors # # LIKELIHOOD # for (i in 1 : 432) # loop over congressional districts { # X[i,1] ~ dbern(p[i]); probit(p[i]) <- delta[i] delta[i] ~ dnorm(mu[i], 1.0)I(-4, 4) mu[i] <- beta[1]+X[i,5]*beta[2]+X[i,6]*beta[3]+X[i,7]*beta[4]+X[i,8]*beta[5]+X[i,9]*beta[6]+X[i,10]*beta[7]+X[i,11]*beta[8] # # Borrowed From Simon Jackman # llh[i] <- X[i,1]*log(p[i]) + (1-X[i,1])*log(1-p[i]); } sumllh <- sum(llh[]); # }