To forecast the Alito vote we use two-dimensional
DW-NOMINATE
coordinates for the 108th Senate. Coordinates for the
newly elected Senators (Salazar (D-CO), Martinez (R-FL), Isakson
(R-GA), Obama (D-IL), Vitter (R-LA), Burr (R-NC), Coburn (R-OK),
DeMint (R-SC), Thune (R-SD)) were obtained by running
W-NOMINATE
on the combined roll matrix for the 108th
Senate and roll calls for the 109th
through the end of July. The 91 Senators who served in both the 108th
and 109th were used in a simple OLS to obtain the mapping
of the W-NOMINATE coordinates into the DW-NOMINATE 108th
coordinates. These are the coordinates shown in the graph below.
Newly appointed Senator Menendez (D-NJ) is assigned his DW-NOMINATE
coordinates from the 108th House. (Note that we show
the 2nd dimension unweighted for purposes of
clarity!)
Below are the positions of the Judiciary
Committee members and those Senators who either announced on or
before 20 January 2006.
MONTANA |
D |
BAUCUS |
NO |
||
ILLINOI |
D |
DURBIN |
NO |
||
CALIFOR |
D |
FEINSTEIN |
NO |
||
IOWA |
D |
HARKIN |
NO |
||
MASSACH |
D |
KENNEDY ED |
NO |
||
VERMONT |
D |
LEAHY |
NO |
||
MARYLAN |
D |
MIKULSKI |
NO |
||
COLORAD |
D |
SALAZAR |
NO |
||
OREGON |
D |
WYDEN |
NO |
||
NEBRASK |
D |
NELSON BEN |
YES |
||
COLORAD |
R |
ALLARD |
YES |
||
GEORGIA |
R |
CHAMBLISS |
YES |
||
MINNESO |
R |
COLEMAN |
YES |
||
OHIO |
R |
DEWINE |
YES |
||
NEVADA |
R |
ENSIGN |
YES |
||
WYOMING |
R |
ENZI |
YES |
||
TENNESS |
R |
FRIST |
YES |
||
NEBRASK |
R |
HAGEL |
YES |
||
PENNSYL |
R |
SANTORUM |
YES |
||
ALABAMA |
R |
SESSIONS |
YES |
||
WYOMING |
R |
THOMAS |
YES |
||
SOUTH D |
R |
THUNE |
YES |
||
PENNSYL |
R |
SPECTER |
YES |
||
NEW HAM |
R |
GREGG |
YES |
||
NEW HAM |
R |
SUNUNU |
YES |
Below are the positions of the Judiciary Committee members and those Senators who announced after January 20, as of 26 January 2006.
DELAWAR |
D |
BIDEN |
NO |
CALIFOR |
D |
BOXER |
NO |
NEW YOR |
D |
CLINTON |
NO |
CONNECT |
D |
DODD |
NO |
WISCONS |
D |
FEINGOLD |
NO |
MASSACH |
D |
KERRY JOHN |
NO |
WISCONS |
D |
KOHL |
NO |
WASHING |
D |
MURRAY |
NO |
FLORIDA |
D |
NELSON |
NO |
ILLINOI |
D |
OBAMA |
NO |
RHODE I |
D |
REED |
NO |
NEVADA |
D |
REID |
NO |
NEW YOR |
D |
SCHUMER |
NO |
MICHIGA |
D |
STABENOW |
NO |
INDIANA |
R |
LUGAR |
YES |
SOUTH D |
D |
JOHNSON |
YES |
VIRGINI |
R |
ALLEN |
YES |
UTAH |
R |
BENNETT |
YES |
MISSOUR |
R |
BOND |
YES |
KANSAS |
R |
BROWNBACK |
YES |
KENTUCK |
R |
BUNNING |
YES |
MONTANA |
R |
BURNS |
YES |
NORTH C |
R |
BURR |
YES |
OKLAHOM |
R |
COBURN |
YES |
MISSISS |
R |
COCHRAN |
YES |
TEXAS |
R |
CORNYN |
YES |
IDAHO |
R |
CRAIG |
YES |
IDAHO |
R |
CRAPO |
YES |
SOUTH C |
R |
DEMINT |
YES |
NORTH C |
R |
DOLE |
YES |
NEW MEX |
R |
DOMENICI |
YES |
SOUTH C |
R |
GRAHAM |
YES |
IOWA |
R |
GRASSLEY |
YES |
UTAH |
R |
HATCH |
YES |
TEXAS |
R |
HUTCHISON |
YES |
OKLAHOM |
R |
INHOFE |
YES |
GEORGIA |
R |
ISAKSON |
YES |
ARIZONA |
R |
KYL |
YES |
MISSISS |
R |
LOTT |
YES |
FLORIDA |
R |
MARTINEZ |
YES |
ARIZONA |
R |
MCCAIN |
YES |
KENTUCK |
R |
MCCONNELL |
YES |
ALASKA |
R |
MURKOWSKI |
YES |
KANSAS |
R |
ROBERTS |
YES |
ALABAMA |
R |
SHELBY |
YES |
OREGON |
R |
SMITH GORD |
YES |
MISSOUR |
R |
TALENT |
YES |
LOUISIA |
R |
VITTER |
YES |
OHIO |
R |
VOINOVICH |
YES |
VIRGINI |
R |
WARNER |
YES |
Announced after January 26
VERMONT |
I |
JEFFORDS |
NO |
MARYLAN |
D |
SARBANES |
NO |
ARKANSA |
D |
PRYOR |
NO |
ARKANSA |
D |
LINCOLN |
NO |
CONNECT |
D |
LIEBERMAN |
NO |
MICHIGA |
D |
LEVIN CARL |
NO |
HAWAII |
D |
INOUYE |
NO |
DELAWAR |
D |
CARPER |
NO |
NEW MEX |
D |
BINGAMAN |
NO |
HAWAII |
D |
AKAKA |
NO |
MINNESO |
D |
DAYTON |
NO |
ALASKA |
R |
STEVENS |
YES |
MAINE |
R |
COLLINS |
YES |
TENNESS |
R |
ALEXANDER |
YES |
WEST VI |
D |
BYRD ROBER |
YES |
NORTH D |
D |
CONRAD |
YES |